How we read the ocean.
We won't give away the full recipe, but a forecast you can't see inside isn't worth much. Here's what we use, why it matters, and what every number on the GNRLY forecast is actually telling you.
How GNRLY forecasts
We don't reinvent the ocean, we combine well-known forecast models with local knowledge so the numbers actually mean something at your break.
Where does your raw data come from?
We pull live swell, wind and tide data from established global ocean models, the same primary sources most surf forecasts are built on. The difference is what we do with it after.
What makes your forecast different from the big sites?
Generic forecasts give you the open-ocean reading at a grid point offshore. We tune every spot for its own geography. Orientation, shelter, reef vs beach, wind funnelling, tide windows, so the numbers reflect what the wave will actually do when it lands.
How often does the forecast update?
Through the day, in line with the underlying model runs. You'll usually see refreshed data every few hours.
How far out can I trust it?
The first 3 days are the most reliable. Days 4-7 are a strong steer for planning. Beyond a week, treat it as a signal that something might be on the way, not a promise.
Reading the forecast
Groundswell vs Sea - what's the difference?
Groundswell is the primary long-period swell that's travelled in from a distant storm, the organised lines that actually shape the surf. Sea is the total significant wave height, combining groundswell with any locally generated wind-sea sitting on top. A 2ft groundswell can still produce a chest-high wave because the sea component fills in the rest. Most forecasters quote that combined figure as their headline 'swell', we show both so you know what kind of size you're getting.
Why does swell period matter?
Period is the time between waves and it's the single best clue to wave quality. Short periods (under ~9s) usually mean weak, choppy windswell. Mid periods (10-13s) start to form proper lines. Long periods (14s+) carry serious energy and refract into spots that shorter swells miss entirely.
What about swell direction?
Each break has a 'window' of directions it likes. A 4ft swell pointing at the wrong angle can be flat at one spot and pumping a mile up the coast. We score every spot against the live swell direction so you can see who's lit up and who's shadowed.
How do you handle wind?
Wind speed alone isn't the whole story, what matters is its angle relative to the beach. Offshore grooms waves, onshore flattens them, side-shore depends on the spot. We resolve wind against each spot's orientation rather than just showing a compass direction.
And tides?
Spots have tide windows where they work best, some need a pushing mid, some only break on a low, some get fat at high. We blend tide state into the rating per spot, not as a generic 'high/low' badge.
The rating & Bodhi
How is the spot rating calculated?
We weigh swell size, period, direction, wind angle, wind strength and tide state, all against that spot's preferences. The rating is what comes out when all those factors agree (or don't). We're not going to walk through the exact weighting, but the inputs aren't a secret.
Why does the rating differ from other apps?
Because we're rating the wave at the beach, not the swell offshore. A clean 3ft groundswell with the wrong wind and wrong tide isn't a good session, and our rating reflects that even when raw numbers look tempting.
Who is Bodhi?
Bodhi is the AI local sitting on top of the forecast. He reads the same data you see, factors in your ability and the boards in your quiver, then tells you where to go, what to ride and when to paddle out, in plain language, the way a veteran at the carpark would.
Does Bodhi take my level into account?
Yes. The call you get as an improver is different from the one an experienced surfer gets for the same conditions. He won't send a beginner into reef that's over their head, and he won't waste an experienced surfer's time on a session that'll bore them.
Coverage & accuracy
Which spots do you cover?
South Wales, from the Severn Estuary across to Pembrokeshire, including Porthcawl, Gower, Swansea Bay, Carmarthenshire, the Vale and the west coast breaks.
How accurate is it?
Honest answer: no forecast is perfect, the ocean has the final word. We keep tuning spot-by-spot based on what actually happens in the water, and we publish accuracy updates as we improve the model.
What if the forecast gets it wrong at my local?
Tell us. Spot tuning is an ongoing job and ground-truth from surfers who know a break is the best feedback we get, it's how the model gets sharper.
Still got questions?
The best way to see how it works is to ask Bodhi yourself. 7 days of Premium on the house. No card required.